Windows Live -- Is Google Doomed?
So the demo failed, it doesn't work yet for Firefox, and everything isn't formatted properly even on IE6. However, Window's Live is here, and it's just the tip of the Microsoft strategy iceberg; as I've written in the past, don't count Redmond out.
The strategy is simple and somewhat expected, but the execution is faster than I guessed it would be. Essentially, Microsoft is beginning to deliver advertising supported web-based versions of Office and Windows to complement their current suite.
Gates said Microsoft is working on two products, "Windows Live" and "Office Live," that create opportunities for the company to sell online subscriptions and advertising. Both are targeted at smaller businesses and consumers.
The products won't replace the company's ubiquitous operating system or productivity suite, and people don't need to have that software loaded to tap into the Web versions... Gates said that Windows Live is a set of Internet-based personal services, such as e-mail, blogging and instant messaging. It will be primarily supported by advertising and be separate from the operating system itself. Office Live will come in both ad-based and subscription versions that augment the popular desktop productivity suite.
The beauty of this strategy is that it puts Google in quite a fix. It allows Microsoft to continue to make money on it's core operating systems and office products at the high-middle end of the market while opening up an entire new revenue stream and access base to compete directly with Google. Interoperability is key, and Microsoft documents that can work on both web apps and desktop apps will have a huge advantage over any productivity tools that Google tries to bring to market. With this advantage in mind, Windows Live will be the ultimate portal -- all of my documents, emails, IM, voice, news, entertainment, pictures, anti-virus, search and whatever else together in one universally accessible place -- hmmm... my desktop on the Web. Any wonder why they are calling it Windows Live and not say, MSN?
Microsoft then owns the experience and thus controls the access of the web just as they have on the PC -- and can direct users to search or anywhere else they need to go. After all, who wants to leave their experience to find information if it can get it from within (or it can just come to them contextually)?
Tough to believe, but Google's shares rose today -- there are many counting Microsoft out. I just don't get it. There is no doubt in my mind that Google is providing some incredible tools, and today have an unbelievably efficient model. So did Norton -- remember Norton Desktop, the shell app for Windows 3.x? They were phenomenal tools that made Windows better just as Google makes the Web better today -- but Microsoft slowly added it all to Windows; Google may one day be the Norton Desktop of the 00's.
So, I remain short at these prices... Microsoft is going to be VERY tough to beat.
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