The Future of Search: Hold On to Your Hat...

... or don't.  If you lose the hat, just Google it.

I mentioned in passing at the end of a previous blog that the search engines would eventually own everything of value. For those of you who read my comment and wondered what I was talking about, here’s a little more detail.

Technology continues to evolve at an exponentially accelerating rate, and information is being produced just as fast. As technology continues to advance, something is needed to make sure that everything we are creating can be found, accessed and understood – otherwise the value of the advancements are greatly diminished. Enter search. Unlike the Internet, which is simply a necessary but static virtual pipe for information to travel within, search has the potential to create a dynamic internet that morph to access just about anything. In search, we have Internet 2.0; the next major technological innovation that creates a total discontinuity in technology, connection and access.

As we continue to increase processing power, storage and bandwidth at rates more or less approximating Moore’s Law, we are able to provide this power and storage at a reasonable cost to more appliances and objects – even the small ones. Some examples of what is almost possible today:

• A magazine that contains a chip to tell the network where it is in the house and the articles within. Looking for that National Geographic article you read a few years ago in one of the issues you received? Google your home magazine collection.
• Books, keys, passports and other objects (anything and everything) that are tagged with small devices containing meta-information allowing the network to locate them – can’t remember where you put that screwdriver? Google your home tool collection.
• Light bulbs, batteries and even milk with a very simple inexpensive processor and transmitter to tell the network that it's running out, and needs replacement. Can’t remember if you’re out of milk? Just Google your refrigerator from your cell phone in the store.

In essence, as information becomes more distributed and can be found and accessed on more and more objects, search is the glue that holds it all together. It in many ways search becomes your virtual memory, filling in for areas where the brain lacks accuracy – after all, what is memory but a highly complex but imperfect search engine? Why remember where your car is parked if you can just Google it? Why remember your aunt’s birthday if an agent set up within Google can remind you? What’s more, why worry about someone stealing your wedding ring when they know you will be able to Google it’s exact location no matter where it is.

The answer is you won’t need to remember or track much of anything any longer; Google will remember and track everything for you. And it’s this collective and active memory that will make the search engines so powerful. They will be what we’ll need use to accomplish most any task, from paying our bills to grocery shopping to finding our keys. This, of course, will put them in a very powerful position – whether they charge per transaction or operate on an advertising supported model (which will be much more interactive than it is today; how about drop-shipped GE light bulbs from Amazon directly to your house when they are about to run out), they will own the connections from everything to everything else, forming a much more powerful internet within the internet. They will be like the utility company – you won’t necessarily like them, but you won’t be able to live without them.

Take the next step: what would make the most powerful memory in the world? What would help a company truly own everything of value? How about one that can remember and locate everything AND predict the future too? The social ramifications of this are far-reaching and are another topic for another day.

Suffice to say that Microsoft is concerned about Google for a very good reason. Gates has seen this future… and he’s not the least bit amused that Google has a head start.

Comments

[Dimitar Vesselinov]

The New Moore's Law
http://divedi.blogspot.com/2004/10/new-moores-law.html

What 2034 will bring
http://divedi.blogspot.com/2004/05/what-2034-will-bring.html

The Other Exponentials
http://www.techreview.com/articles/04/11/brooks1104.asp

The Future of Media
http://www.robinsloan.com/epic/
http://divedi.blogspot.com/2004/11/future-of-media-2.html